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AgStar > Mark Greenwood > Swine Blog
Mark Greenwood’s SwineGuy Blog

AgStar’s Swine Team is now blogging. Check  back often for Mark’s latest ideas and thoughts.

12/30/2009 3:42 PM

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report Was Released Wednesday Afternoon
 
USDA's estimates
Average of analysts' estimates
Range of analysts' estimates
All hogs on Dec 1
98.0
97.6
96.8 - 99.2
Kept for breeding
97.0
96.6
95.3 - 98.0
Kept for marketing
98.0
97.7
97.0 - 99.4
 
Sep-Nov pig crop
100.0
98.8
98.3 - 99.0
Sep-Nov pigs per litter
102.0
101.9
101.6 - 102.1
Sep-Nov farrowings
98.0
96.9
96.7 - 97.0
Dec-Feb farrowing
     intentions

98.0

96.8

95.9 - 98.0

Mar-May farrowing
     intentions

97.0

97.0

98.9 - 98.0

 
Hogs weighing < 50 lbs
98.0
98.1
96.5 - 99.2
Hogs weighing 50 - 119 lbs
98.0
97.9
96.4 - 99.5
Hogs weighing 120 - 179 lbs
98.0
97.7
96.2 - 99.4
Hogs weighing > 180 lbs
98.0
97.7
96.9 - 98.8
Note: USDA rounds its estimate sto the nearest whole number.
Posted at 12/30/2009 3:42 PM

12/28/2009 10:39 AM

Finally a Nice Run-up on Hog Prices

We have seen producer’s hog prices go from $110 a head prior to Thanksgiving, to today’s price of over $130 a head.  This has been a welcome relief to the industry. The key driver in this improvement is the pork prices’ cut out value which has been lead by the price of ham on a wholesale level. We’ve seen cut out values jump from approximately the low sixties two or three weeks ago, to now, we are approaching the seventy-two dollar range. We have never seen these high values of cut out value for pork occur in the month of December before.  This is a first.  Let’s hope this continues.  This will be interesting to watch, as we hope to maintain this cut out value at this level through the holidays.

Posted at 12/28/2009 10:39 AM

12/23/2009 6:28 AM

Cold Storage Report
The November Cold storage was postive for the pork sector. Overall, pork supplies are down 7.5% from a year earlier. The total amount of pork in cold storage was also the lowest since Deember of 2007. In addition, all proteins beef -10.5%, chicken -18.5%, turkey down 36.8%. This should all be supportive to prices for all proteins if demand continues to improve. If you are looking for more detail on the numbers go to www.DailyLivestockReport.com.
Posted at 12/23/2009 6:28 AM

12/8/2009 8:58 AM

Cut Out Value and Cash Hog Prices Improve
Since November 23rd we have seen cut out values and cash hog prices improve dramatically. The key driver on this has been hams and their value. The prices of hams is over $72 and it is actually higher than loins by over $3 per cwt. In talking to many packers they do not believe that hams can keep this value and that other cutouts will need to help carry cut out value. We will need to watch this over the next week or so to see what occurs. It is welcome relief to hog producers that cash hog prices have improved by almost $15-$20 per head. The industry is still losing money but we are getting closer to a breakeven level. Let's hope that continues.
Posted at 12/8/2009 8:58 AM

11/16/2009 10:47 AM

Sow Slaughter Prices and Numbers
Sow slaughter prices have jumped in recent weeks to close to $.40 a pound. This price is almost as much as live hog prices. The USDA pork purchases have helped keep sow prices up to these levels. The industry still needs to reduce 350-500,000 sows but it has been a slow process. Sow slaughter numbers are averaging between 65-70,000 per week and the industry must stay at this level for another 4-5 months. This is a key statistic to watch. Attached you will find the latest chart that we have. We will try and keep this data up more current for you. This data as of the week of 11-7-09.
 
Swine
 
Posted at 11/16/2009 10:47 AM

9/25/2009 2:57 PM

Sept. Hog and Pigs Report

No real big surprises in the Sept. Hog and Pigs report, liquidation is occurring but it is a slow process. Sow productivity continues to improve as the pigs per litter trend is still trending higher. The industry must continue to contract to get to a level that we are more in balance with supply and demand. The key number is to continue to watch the sow liquidation number. This number must be above 70,000 head per week for an extended period of time. If that continues, the market should improve.

USDA Hog Report      

  Actual Pre RPT Est.
All hogs and pigs on Sep 98.0 98.2
Kept for breeding  97.0 97.4 
Kept for marketing 98.0 98.3 
June-Aug pig crop 98.0

98.1

Jun-Aug pigs per litter 102.0

101.4

Jun-Aug farrowings 96.0 96.8
Sep-Nov farrowing intentions 97.0 97.3
Dec-Feb farrowing intentions 97.0 96.9
Hogs weighing under 60 lbs 96.0 98.3
Hogs weighing 60 to 119 lbs 98.0 98.3
Hogs weighing 120-179 lbs 99.0 98.8
Hogs weighing 180 and over  100.0 99.0
Posted at 9/25/2009 2:57 PM

7/22/2009 6:38 AM

National Pork Industry Conference Report
I attended the National Pork Industry Conference In Missouri this week. Even though the swine industry has been difficult there were over 500 people in attendance and a good representation from all over the US and Canada. I was on a Lender panel and I gave an overview of where AgStar sees the industry. A couple of points that I made. I stated that we need to reduce the supply of pork by at least 5%. The US swine industry has become to reliant on the export market and when demand slows from the export side it continues to dump pork on the domestic market. The other point is that I urged the larger production systems in the US to take a more active role in working on increasing demand of pork on the domestic side. The larger systems have done a great job on the production management side  but now they need to take that same passion and help this industry improve demand domestically.
Posted at 7/22/2009 6:38 AM

7/15/2009 6:39 AM

Promoting Pork
A group of producers sponsored a free pork lunch in Mankato, MN on July 14th. They discussed the economics of the pork industry and how pork is a safe and nutritious product. The event was well attended and it did get some press coverage that discussed the plight of the industry. They discussed also the effects of calling H1N1 - "Swine Flu" and how this has hurt pork demand. The industry needs to do more of this type of promotion and get the word out. As I am writing this blog I am watching the news and the news station mentioned "Swine Flu" not H1N!. We still have some work to do to educate the public.
Posted at 7/15/2009 6:39 AM

7/2/2009 2:34 PM

Economics have improved but we have a long way to go
This past week has been as good as we have seen for margin improvement in a long time. The biggest reason for this has been drop in corn prices. Corn right now is below $3.25 a bushel in Southen Minnesota and that makes a dramatic difference on breakeven costs going forward. Current breakeven costs are $135-$140 a head but if costs would stay as they are we would see breakeven costs go down to $120-$125 a head. If you go on the Chicago Board today and go out for 12 months, it is close to a breakeven versus $20-$25 per head losses. This might cause a slowdown in sow liquidation. The last 2 weeks we had 65,000 & 70,000 sows last week. I mentioned in some earlier blogs we need to average over 70,000 sows being liquidated per week for an extended period of time to get supply down. We will need to keep watching this number.
Posted at 7/2/2009 2:34 PM

6/18/2009 4:56 AM

PRP Update

The PRP announced that is has suspended its efforts to try to attract funding for producer reirement program. The financial situation of the industry got to a point where producers were no longer in a position to support their program. This is unfortunate and I know the amount of work that this group has done to get this off the ground. The PRP group also  needed to make a quick assesment on whether this program could work. The indsutry continued to worsen finacially and  it became clear that funding could not be realized.

Posted at 6/18/2009 4:56 AM
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