Tom Neher - Grain Angles

August 30, 2010 - This past week, I have traveled around the Midwest and into the Plains.  In the southern areas of Indiana and Illinois, I visited with farmers who said they were going to start harvesting the next day.  In Kansas, I saw combines running in the fields.  Driving through Missouri and Iowa, I saw fields that were quickly maturing.  The weather doesn’t feel like fall yet, but the early planted row crops are advancing toward the bin.

 Corn and soybean markets have worked to factor into the price the expectations that hot, dry weather in some areas and too much rain in others, will trim bushels from the final production figures.  This market action takes place in the face of a crop that is becoming available for delivery.  These dynamics set the stage for a very volatile environment to make marketing decisions.

In the Upper Midwest, we appear to be in position for a record crop.  This may cause concerns about enough storage; if the crop comes out of the fields at a record pace.  Currently drying does not appear to be as much of a challenge as we experienced last year.  This will allow for more use of temporary storage strategies.  Using these storage strategies requires additional management and attention detail.

If you are not in the field harvesting yet and it looks like you may need to implement a temporary storage strategy, now is the time to make your plans.  If you are going to need to rely on a commercial grain handler to store your grain, find out what the details are for delivery and costs incurred.  There may be additional costs or discounts that will apply.  There may be restrictions on grain condition going into said storage or small windows to sell the grain.  It’s time to read the “fine print.”

If you are going to use or develop your own temporary facilities, you will need to secure the structures or complete dirt work for a pile.  Take into account aeration strategies, if the grain is not going to be moved in six weeks or it has higher moister content.  Coverings will be vital to insure that the weather elements do not challenge the integrity of the grain further.

If we see that temporary storage is being used to any extent, this could have a detrimental effect on the basis.  Remember that the basis is a “snapshot” of the local supply and demand.  If you have hedge- to-arrive contracts or futures contracts based on the December contract and you have the ability to store the grain without cash flow ramifications, you may want to consider rolling your hedges forward in corn.  This will give you more opportunity for basis improvement and capture carrying charges in the market.

Temporary storage strategies should be avoided with soybeans.   The fragile nature of the oilseed does not lend itself to storing under less than ideal conditions.  The soybean market is not offering much in the way of carrying charges in the market and is trying to pull U.S soybeans into the export and domestic channels sooner, rather than later.

Grain handling and storage strategies can give one a grain angle to help them capture marketing opportunities.  Yet, if they are mismanaged; one could have a steep price to pay the market.  This harvest season is what we have been waiting for all year.  Remember to take your time, think twice and enjoy a safe harvest!  

Tom Neher - Grain Angles
August 18, 2010 - The strong wheat market spurred on by the drought in the former Soviet Union has brought world attention to the commodity sector. While the world currently has plenty of wheat to meet the demand, grain merchandisers are scrambling to re-position their origination sources. Much of the wheat that was to be exported from the Black Sea area will need to come from the United States or other stocks of origin. Corn will fill much of the feed wheat orders that would normally are used in livestock rations.

The corn and soybean markets have benefited from the wheat realignment as investor money has been coming into the commodity markets. Yet we are seeing some evidence in the open interest reports that the Index Funds are starting to unload part of their long position in wheat. This has also occurred in the crude oil market. The Index Funds have added to their corn and soybean positions.

If wheat was the driving force behind the run up in the corn and soybean markets, what will happen to this support? The U.S. Dollar has also turned and is now starting to trend higher. The stronger dollar is having a direct impact on the crude oil market, as it is priced in U.S. Dollars on the world market. With the stronger dollar, it will take fewer of them to buy a barrel of crude oil. The stronger dollar makes the U.S. grain more expensive in the world market, as foreign buyers must exchange local currency for U.S. Dollars.

Could this be the end in higher grain prices or will this counter-seasonal rally continue? Many of the technical indicators that I follow continue to show strength in these markets. Yet, much of the fundamental indicators that reflect supply and demand are not nearly as strong. Which one will win out? We really do not know the answer to that question, for that is trying to predict the future. If we knew the answers to these questions, we would not be working so hard or reading this article.

What we do know, is the cost of our production and some preliminary estimates on our 2010 yields. We also know the prices the market is offering today. Using a margin management approach, we have the opportunity to make some profitable marketing decisions. We also are getting a look at what fertilizer prices will be for the 2011 crop year. With crude oil prices weakening, we need to monitor our fuel inputs for the 2011 crop. We may find some real opportunities to make some sound marketing and input decisions that could impact our financial health for several years.

The local cash prices have shown wide basis bids and have been discouraging to many looking to make forward sales. Remember that the basis is a snapshot of the local supply and demand. We have the potential for very large yields this year and merchandisers and end users are not worried about the supply. This is reflected in the wide basis bids offered in our area markets. When this is the case, grain producers can leverage the use of futures contracts to lock in the price and then wait for basis improvements before committing the grain to a specific cash market destination.

The use of futures contracts takes considerable discipline and fortitude to successfully hedge grain. Many do not have the emotional strength to meet margin calls if the futures markets trade higher. It is also vitally important that you have a sound working relationship with your financial services provider. One needs to look for a lender that completely understands hedging and the many tools or strategies to use them. Working with a financial partner that does not understand these tools can be a major stumbling block in successful marketing. Select your partners well, for as my Grandpa used to say; "You need to dance with the one that brought you."

Tom Neher - Grain Angles
August 4, 2010 - Hot, dry weather in the Former Soviet Union has scared the wheat market into a frenzy!  The hard red winter wheat market in Kansas City has rallied over $2.70 since early June.  The corn and soybean markets have tagged along on the shirt tails of this wheat market, defying the fundamentals of supply and demand.  It was a little over 3 years ago that the wheat market was the leader in grain complex that saw all-time record high prices.


Is this indicative of things to come our way in the grain markets this winter?  This is the question that I get asked over and over these days.  Historically, small grains, such as wheat and oats have been barometers for the grain markets.  Will this be the case again? 

I am on record with this column, saying that I do not know where the markets will go.  I stand behind that statement, knowing full well that I was not able to predict the rally in grain markets three years ago.  With this being said, the markets have been showing strength that is uncharacteristic for this time in the marketing year.  With the size of crops in our local growing area, we are enjoying a gift as margins increase.

This type of market reminds me of 1996, when I was working with country elevators and grain producers at the Kansas City Board of Trade.  The markets were rallying and everyone was excited and talking about, “beans in the teens.”  I stopped my old trader friend, after the closing bell and asked him, “What are the two most powerful emotions that drive the markets?”  He stared at me and grumbled, “fear and greed.”  I asked him, “Which one of these is the most powerful?”  My friend looked at me almost with contempt and growled, “Greed has always cost me more than fear ever has.”

As the margins in our grain production operations have greatly increased, let us give serious consideration for rewarding the market, by selling and capturing the profits offered.

I remember the grain angle that my grandpa taught me many years ago.  I was working on developing a marketing plan for my first crop of corn.  I had figured my cost of production and then put together some elaborate price projections.  I was showing him how much money that I was going to make, when the market reached my projected prices.  Grandpa looked over my projections and then quietly smiled.  After a long pause, I couldn’t take the waiting any longer.  I asked him, “So what do you think?”  He paused just long enough to catch my eye and said, “When they pass the plate of cookies around, remember to take a few.”

Stumped for a moment, I knew that once again, grandpa had passed on to me a lesson that I would need to learn again.  When the market gives me a profit, I must remember to take some and put it on the bottom line of the balance sheet.

Tom Neher - Grain Angles
July 22, 2010 - The grain markets continue to rally, even as the crop gets bigger. Crop condition ratings remain strong as the weather induced stress has been nearly nonexistent. With the $.50 rally in corn we now enjoy an additional $100 per acre gross income on a 200 bushel per acre yield. The $1.00 rally in soybeans has added $50 per acre gross income on a 50 bushel per acre yield. This a significant margin to manage.

I was visiting with my friend the other night on the telephone and he told me that this was the best corn crop that he has ever had for this time of year. The population was high and pollination was ahead of schedule. He mentioned that his soybeans were looking much better than they did a few weeks ago. We visited about storage space and what the basis could be at harvest.

Then I asked my friend about his sales of new crop grain. I heard a pause on the other end of the telephone and then a groan. He explained that he had made a few sales last winter and then a month ago at lower prices. He indicated that he had about 50% of his 2010 crops un-priced. I asked him if he thought this might be a good time to get some more grain sold. He said, “Yes, but I think the price will go higher and I want to raise my average on the lower sales.”

I was tempted to go into my lecture on margin management and making marketing decisions as financial decisions rather than trading decisions. I knew he didn’t want to hear that from me again, he told me so in our last conversation. I decided to take a different approach to this conversation. I brought up the tactic of using a “trailing stop.”

I explained the strategy of a placing sell order under the market that would only be filled if the market brakes below the predetermined level. I explained that he would then raise the sale price as the price continued to rally. This would allow him to ride the rally and then make his sale after the market changed direction. I mentioned that there were a few cash contracts and hedging platforms that would do this for him, but that mostly he would have to make the changes himself.

My friend told me that he had tried that once and it didn’t work so well for him. I asked him what happened. He said, “I placed my ‘stop’ order with the elevator and then the price started going down and I cancelled the order before it got filled. I was sure that it was going to go back up after my ‘stop’ order was filled.” I asked him what happened after he made that decision. There was a pause, before he told me, “The market kept going lower.”

Discipline in executing a marketing plan is one of the hardest things to master. One can develop the best marketing plan possible, but if they second guess themselves and fail to execute the plan, it will reinforce the lack of confidence in their marketing ability.
Tom Neher - Grain Angles

The corn market had a job to do this late week.  On June 30th, the USDA estimated that U.S. farmers planted 87.872 million acres of corn, down from their March 31 estimate of 88.798.  This compares to the 86.5 million acres of corn that was planted in 2009.  The average estimate of traders going into the report was 89.302 million acres.  As the market does; it efficiently factored in $.40 into the December futures contact.

The report on soybeans was a bit mixed, in that the USDA raised planted acres to 78.868 million acres.  This compares to their March 31 estimate of 78.098 million acres and the average trade estimate of 78.292.  Soybean stocks were friendly, which counter balanced the planted acres number.  The USDA estimates that 571,000 bushels of soybeans are in storage, compared to the average trade estimate of 592,000 bushels.   The market saw this as neutral to price and remained in the current range.

Given the timing of this rally in the corn market, just ahead of the 4th of July weekend; we may have been given a gift.  There is a strong seasonal pattern for grain prices to break following this holiday.  Time will tell if there is additional demand to drive the corn market beyond a short covering rally.  The soybean market has held up, due to strong demand from the domestic and export markets.  There still remains some time for weather to effect soybean yields, while every day without stress on the corn crop, is one day closer to a bumper crop.

 As I visit with grain producers in the area, I am struck by the differences in the amounts of grain that has been priced.  Some are still holding on to old crop that is un-priced.  This is grain that was grown with high input costs.  Others have corn to deliver on July contacts that was price last year and will enjoy much better prices upon delivery.  What really concerns me is that the amount of new crop grain that is un-priced is even greater.

As I look at the demographic and economic data of the United States, I am struck by the shrinking of the middle class.  The upper class or wealthiest sectors are continuing to acquire a larger percentage of the national treasure.  The ranks of the working poor are growing, causing an ever growing polarization of our society.  In other words, the “rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.”

My fear is that we may be seeing a similar phenomenon taking place in production agriculture.  Some have experience the last few years as extremely profitable, while others have struggled.  We have become very proficient at producing some of the best crops in the world. Financial management and marketing seems to be a common separator between the two groups.  With the current volatility, there has never been a more vital time to become a student of our business.

Tom Neher - Grain Angles

The corn and soybean crops have the potential for record yields this year.  There is a strong correlation between early planting and large yields.  The corn crop was planted well ahead of the 5 year average. Many of the soybeans were planted early, with others at near normal timing.  Adequate moisture has fallen and very little stress has affected the crop development.  There is plenty of time for stressors to impact the growing crop.  Yet, every stress free day is one day closer to a bumper harvest.

The market has done its work of factoring these growing conditions into the prices.  From the winter highs in January, corn has lost nearly 60 cents and soybeans have given up over a dollar in price.  The function of the futures market is to anticipate the prices for future delivery.  The market is looking for strong production. Currently it is trying to factor in the demand side of the equation.  Many think that the lower prices will stimulate greater demand for the extra bushels.

The severe weather that we have experienced lately is one stressor on the crop that is not market sensitive.  Tornadoes and hail storms tend to have a huge impact on crops, but in a relatively small, concentrated area.  These losses have a huge impact on the localized area, yet the losses are not large enough to have an impact on the domestic prices of grain. 

The financial impact on those hit by the recent storms is very real and can leave scares on balance sheets for years.  The power of risk management tools can be seen during times like these.  It is vital that the proper amounts of property and casualty insurance are maintained to help mitigate these losses.  Health and life insurance is paramount in the event of injury or death in these tragic storms.  Hail and crop insurance are powerful risk management tools as severe weather threatens our livelihoods.

Risk management is more than “laying off” price risk of the grain.  It is also about “laying off” the production risk.  Production risk also is impacted by the loss of property, health and casualty.  The premium of the insurance products is the price of risk management.  The uninsured loss is the price of failing to manage the risk inherent in production agriculture.  There are few people who have the luxury of being able to “self-insure” and not buy insurance products to manage risk.

Loses from severe storms became very real to me while I was farming in western Kansas.  I had been farming for 8 years and the last three were drought laden.  The drought stress and low grain prices had taken a toll on my balance sheet.  I was in a “make or break” situation and I made the dumbest risk management decision of my career.  I chose not to buy hail insurance, for the first time in my farming career. 

That summer, I watched a huge storm build up in the western sky and tornado warnings were issued.  As the panoramic sky grew dark and the air smelled like danger; I saw greenish cloud coming our way.  In the course of 20 minutes, I watch a years’ worth of work destroyed by a massive hail storm.  As it turned out, I was watching 8 years of work being destroyed, for it was my last year of farming.  This was one grain angle that I learned too late to save my farming career. 

As my Grandpa always told me, “son, if you are going to pay the tuition…you had better go to class!”  My prayer is that my “tuition” and lesson can be a grain angle that can be given to others free of charge.         

Tom Neher - Grain Angles
This column is a dedication to Dennis Kelly, who passed way as he lost his battle with pancreatic cancer. Dennis was the author of this column for many years, contributing his vast experience and knowledge to the Land Magazine. He considered it to be a privilege to share his Grain Angles with rural Minnesota. Dennis knew the land and the people who tilled the land. He knew what it took to bring a harvest to market and to that end; he never forgot the value that it brought to the rural communities across Minnesota.
 
We could always count on Dennis to keep us focused on knowing what the basis bids where around the state and teaching us what an important angle it was to our marketing efforts. He was keenly aware of the importance of margin management and how it was a powerful management strategy. He always had an opinion and was not afraid to share it with his readers. Planning and proactive marketing was the angle that he drove home in his column, time and again. Dennis was truly a student of this business and was passionate about teaching others to be successful.
 
During my first week with AgStar, I spent a day riding with Dennis as he called on his clients. He would bring the families together around their kitchen tables and review their operations. Questions were asked by all and wisdom passed both ways. He always had great respect for his clients and took quiet delight in their success. Always quick to smile and slow to frustrate, Dennis was client focused.
 
Dennis grew up near New Richland, Minnesota. He graduated from the University of Minnesota with a Bachelor's degree in Agricultural Education and had a Masters of Education degree with an emphasis in Farm Business Management. He had been with AgStar since 1996 and worked as the Sales Team Leader in Mankato. He also was a Financial Services Officer in Le Sueur and Scott counties.
 
Our hearts go out to his wife, daughter and son as they grieve their loss. The AgStar Family is also grieving the loss of a team member that “rode for the brand” and was the greatest example of the passion to serve. His courage was demonstrated as he stood tall on the stage of our “Stars Are Out” awards event. Dennis received the highest honor, for service to rural America from AgStar on that day.
 
While facing his journey with cancer straight on, he addressed the team with the grit of a true leader, as he shared his wisdom and encouragement. His faith, love of his family, friends, clients and co-workers was demonstrated every day as he walked on his journey through this life. His sprit will live on through the lives that he touched throughout rural Minnesota.
Tom Neher - Grain Angles

The early planting and warm weather is optimal for developing crops.  As always, the weather that follows will make or break the crop.  Yet, the market has factored much of this news into the price.  If one looks only at the fundamentals of supply and demand, the case can be made for even lower prices. 

It is sobering to recognize that much the current support in commodities is coming from investors that are fearful of another economic down turn in Europe.  People are looking for a safe haven for their investment capital.  Many are investing in U.S. Government bonds as a safer bet than stocks.  With this flight to quality, commodities are receiving the benefit from some of this re-allocation of capital.

In my last column, I wrote about the basis being a “snapshot” of the local supply and demand.  Understanding the nature of the local market can give one a significant grain angle when it comes to making marketing decisions.  It is also very important to look for that angle on the larger stage of the world market.

One can get a “snapshot” of the global market, by studying the basis at the export terminals.  Ports such as New Orleans and Portland are key markets in the exports from the United States into the global market.  New Orleans basis is reflective of barge freight on the central river system along with export demand.  Portland basis is reflective of rail freights from the Midwest to the Pacific Northwest, barge freight on the Columbia River and export demand to the Pacific Rim countries.

If the local market is connected to the river system or a major rail line to the Pacific Northwest, your local basis can be affected by the basis in the export markets.  These draws on the local grain supply must compete with local demand to originate bushels.  In other words, the local livestock feeder or ethanol plant has to compete with China or Europe to secure grain for their operations.

The world market does directly impact the local grain market.  The interconnectedness of these markets has been growing during the last 40 years.  Economists call this “globalization,” which is a verb that means; to become or make something become international.  Globalization of the world grain markets makes the knowledge of economic events in other countries imperative, if you are to be a student of your business.

The global economic events affect more markets than the grain trade.  The supply and demand of capital can be a driver for where the capital is invested.  This has a direct impact on the credit markets.  When credit is in high demand, the market will rise to attract the capital.  When credit is in low demand, the market will fall and interest rates become lower.

This theory of the credit markets works well in a “vacuum,” or in a “perfect world.”  When global economic events impact individual governments, they have the ability to impact interest rates and capital flow by making policy decisions.  With the subsidies and “bailouts” that occur during times of crisis, the global economy becomes even more complicated. 

To simplify the complexity, one can simply study the local and export basis to get a feel for supply and demand.  The value of the U.S. Dollar gives us a “snapshot” of our global economic power.  The value of U.S. Government debt instruments gives us a sense of the credit markets.  The value of the stock markets around the world gives us a sense of where investors want to put their money.  The greatest grain angle is the understanding that all of this information is factored into the price of grain that is discovered on the commodity exchanges.  As a student of our business, we must remember that all that is known about the grain markets today is immediately factored into the price we currently have.

We know what the price is today, based on the information that the markets have factored into the price.  We do not know what they will be tomorrow.  If we know what our margins are, we can reward the market by capturing the price when it is offered.  Making our marketing decisions as a financial decision rather than a trading decision is a grain angle that can be a key to equity management.

Tom Neher - Grain Angles

A balmy April warmed the soil and allowed for a record pace of corn planting this year. May has been cooler and is starting to remind us of last year as we had a cooler than normal growing season. Soybeans are going into the ground at a record clip and will likely be complete by the time many of you read this column.

The grain market’s job is to discover the value of the products, by bringing all of the collective intelligence into the market place. One has to understand that all of the news, information and ideas are factored into the prices that we see today. With the speed of communication and transportation, the news travels faster than ever before. This is the role that the market plays in agricultural trade – price discovery.

The price is discovered on the trading exchanges around the world. There is one part of the price that is discovered locally; in every place that grain changes hands. That is the basis. The basis, in its’ simplest definition, is the difference between the futures price established on the trading exchange and the local price. Typically, this is made up of transportation cost to the futures delivery point and the local supply and demand.

The easiest way to look at basis is to view it as a “snap shot” of local supply and demand. When the USDA releases its’ supply and demand report, it indicates their estimate of the U.S. and global supply and demand. These figures illustrate the “fundamentals” of grain economics. Agricultural economist will studies these numbers, make historical comparisons and attempt to forecast the future value of the grain.

You don’t have to be an agricultural economist to study the basis. As a student of your business, you should be very aware of the local supply and demand. You know how the crops are growing and who is buying and who is selling grain. The most powerful method of studying this is by following the basis bids in your local markets.

When someone needs to buy grain and no one wants to sell, they have to bid the basis up to try and attract bushels. If everyone wants to sell and no one wants the buy the basis bids will widen out to deter bushels away from the market.

During the next several months, you will want to continue studying the basis if you have “hedged-to- arrive” or “futures only” cash contracts to deliver upon. These contracts already have the futures price component established and the basis is left open until it is fixed before delivery. This is the place that you can increase your margins. With the volatility that we have experienced in the grain markets these last few years, there have been some tremendous opportunities to fatten your margins by locking in the basis at the opportune moment.

As you run your numbers through your margin calculators, plug in a ten cents improvement in the basis and see what a difference it can make. Sometimes a mere ten cents a bushel can be the difference between breaking even and making a profit. By becoming a student of your business and capturing the opportunities that the local supply and demand offers, you will find the grain angle that may allow you to participate in equity management: the accumulation of wealth over the number of years in business.

Tom Neher - Grain Angles
The spring planting season is a time of hope and new birth. New calves and lambs hit the ground, the rain falls and the sun shines on a new day. It is with optimism that one must enter this season, for it is the time when seeds of hope are planted in the rich soil that we are blessed to be stewards. The earth currently is home for 6.8 billion people that require food, fiber and shelter. Agriculture is directly responsible for providing these staples through the production of grain, livestock, fruits, vegetables, cotton, flax and timber. This is truly a noble profession that is an honor and the responsibility must be taken seriously.
 
Those that are involved in this profession have always known that Earth Day is not just one day in the spring. Rather, it is a lifestyle and an acknowledgment that we must work in harmony with Mother Nature, nurturing and sustaining this God given gift. We in agriculture, know that animal welfare, soil conservation, fertility and forest management is the very key to our sustainability. We also have the responsibility to manage our financial resources that come from our production of agricultural products.
 
The management of our financial resources is as important as managing our physical resources. The result of managing all of these resources in an effective manner is that we are able to feed; clothe and house a growing population. This management also makes it possible to support our families and communities. This truly is a privilege and noble reasonability.
 
This past week-end I traveled back to my home state of Kansas, to visit family. While I was there, I ran into a classmate of mine that had followed in his family’s tradition and was working the family farm. I was sharing some of these thoughts with him about spring and a time of new hope. I could see his mood change and that he was clearly in disagreement with me. I asked him about his concern. He scratched his head, looked off into the distance and said, “All that talk is fine, but I have half of last year’s corn in the bin and my current costs of production are above the new crop bid at the elevator. I don’t have any of the corn priced.” The silence that followed his comment was long and painful.
 
I asked him if he had time for a cup of coffee and we walked across the street to local café. We sat in the corner booth, so as not to be easily overheard. I shared with him about the practice of margin management. We talked about pre-harvest marketing and how 70% of the time the highest price in a marketing year comes before planting. We talked about the cost of storage and that “carry in the market” should dictate the post-harvest marketing decisions. After several cups of coffee and a few tears, my friend asked me where I learned all of this about grain marketing. After a pause, I replied, “from the school of hard knocks and years of working in the grain industry.” He smiled and asked me what else I had learned at “that school.” I looked him in the eye and said, “If you are going to pay the tuition, you had better go to class!”
 
As my friend climbed into his truck to leave, he thanked me for the coffee and asked me if that was one of those “Grain Angles” that he had heard me mention. I told him that it was and that I wished I had learned it earlier in my career. As he drove away, I knew that we would talk again he would go to class and become a student of his business.
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